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National Heroes Day Banking Hours

Butterfield will be closed on Monday, 20 June, 2022 for National Heroes Day. To access your accounts, please use our Butterfield Online, ATM and mobile banking services.



Our Banking Centres will re-open on Tuesday, 21 June, 2022 from 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.

We have moved! Our new address is: PO Box 250, IFC6, IFC Jersey, St Helier, Jersey, JE4 5PU.

 

Please be advised our EUR & USD Notice account rates have been updated. To view our rates please click here.

Butterfield will be closed on Monday, 13 November, for the Remembrance Day public holiday. Our Banking Centres will reopen on Tuesday, 14 November, at 9 a.m. To access your accounts, please use Butterfield Online and our ATM network.

Old Sterling Banknotes – removed from circulation on 1 October 2022.

Please be advised that as of Saturday, 1 October 2022, Butterfield will not accept old paper sterling notes for banking deposits or transactions as they will no longer be legal tender. The official last day of use is Friday, 30 September 2022.

Butterfield clients are encouraged to deposit old notes or swap them out for the new polymer ones at any Butterfield Banking Centre before Saturday, 1 October 2022. From this date, only polymer sterling banknotes will be accepted.

We will be closed on Monday, 23 January 2023 for National Heroes Day. Our Midtown Plaza Banking Centre will be this Saturday from 9:00 a.m. until 12:00 p.m. and otherwise all Banking Centres will reopen on Tuesday, 24 January 2023, with normal operating hours of 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m. You can continue to access your accounts during the public holiday by using our Butterfield Online, ATM and mobile banking devices.

Please be advised our General Terms and Conditions have been updated in reference to a new clause 11.3.  Please click here to view the full document.

Holiday Banking Hours:

Butterfield will be closed from 2 p.m. on Friday 23 December and will reopen 9 a.m. Wednesday 28 December, 2022.

We will close again from 4 p.m. on Friday 30 December, 2022 and will reopen 9 a.m. Tuesday 3 January, 2023.

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Update on Saturday Banking: Saturday Banking will be temporarily suspended as we allow time for annual training and infrastructure investment initiatives. To access your accounts, please use our Butterfield Online, ATM and mobile banking services. Saturday Banking hours will resume as normal on March 4th.

Please be aware that we will be carrying out work on our technology systems from 6 pm on Friday, 6 October. Butterfield Online and Saturday Banking will be unavailable this weekend. All services are expected to resume as normal on Monday, 9 October. 

Butterfield will be closed on Monday, 2 September 2024, for the Labour Day public holiday. To access your accounts, please use Butterfield Online and our ATM network.

Our Banking Centres will re-open on Tuesday, 3 September 2024, from 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.

Butterfield will be closed on Monday, 17 June 2024 for the King’s Birthday public holiday. To access your accounts, please use Butterfield Online and our ATM network.

Our Banking Centres will re-open on Tuesday, 18 May 2024 from 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.

Update on Saturday Banking: We are pleased to announce the return of Saturday Banking. Our Front Street Banking Centre will be open from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. every Saturday for you to take care of your personal banking needs.

Update on Saturday Banking: Saturday Banking will be temporarily suspended effective 15 July 2023, as we allow time for annual training and infrastructure investment initiatives. We will advise when Saturday Banking services have resumed. To access your accounts, please use Butterfield Online and our ATM network. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Hurricane Lee Advisory: Please be advised that our offices and Banking Centres in Bermuda will be open for business from 12:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. today.

The ATMs at Collector’s Hill, Modern Mart, Somerset MarketPlace and Somerset Banking Centre are back in service and Saturday banking will be available tomorrow at Front Street from 10:00 a.m. to 3 p.m. 

We are pleased to report the issue with debit card settlements has been fixed for the vast majority of accounts impacted, and we are working to correct the few outstanding. If you still see an issue with your account and you require access to blocked funds immediately, please contact the call centre.

Please be advised that our Banking Centres will be closing at 2:00 p.m. on Friday, 6 October. Butterfield Online will also be unavailable this weekend from 4:00 p.m. on Friday, 6 October until Monday, 9 October at 9:00 a.m. as part of a scheduled systems update.

Our Island Saver Instant Access account now has a reduced minimum of £10,000. Click here for more details

Our Fee Schedule has been updated, effective Friday, 1 March 2024. For full details, please review the Fee Schedule here

 

Butterfield will be closed on Monday, 17 June 2024 for the National Heroes Day public holiday. To access your accounts, please use Butterfield Online and our ATM network.
All Banking Centres will reopen on Tuesday, 18 June 2024, with our normal operating hours of 9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.

Our Schedule of Charges for Personal and Corporate Banking services have been updated, effective Tuesday, 2 January 2024. For full details, please review the Schedule of Charges documents in our website footer below. 

Our Schedule of Charges for Personal and Corporate Banking services have been updated, effective Tuesday, 2 January 2024. For full details, please review the Schedule of Charges documents in our website footer below. 

Please be advised our EUR & USD Notice account rates have been updated. To view our rates please click here.

Read the monthly House View on the global economy and financial markets, written by our investment strategists and based on comprehensive research.

November 2023

Strategy

The Godot Recession

  • Economic growth has held up well
  • Some cracks are emerging in economic indicators
  • Bonds have become attractive again

Many economists and market analysts have spent the past 18 months warning of an imminent recession. With interest rates in the US, UK and Eurozone having increased by 5.25%, 5.15% and 4.5% respectively this cycle, the elevated risk of recession is not surprising. Furthermore, central banks explicitly told us that they were prepared to impose pain on the economy (through higher borrowing costs and a weaker labour market) to bring inflation back down towards the 2% target.

A popular maxim is “don't fight the Fed”. In this context, when the central bank is saying that they are prepared to risk recession in order to prioritise the fight against inflation, suggesting a recession could be avoided is akin to “fighting the Fed”. This has created a challenging environment for financial markets.

While there has been a lot of gloom around this year, the good news is that the incoming data has been a lot more positive than many expected. Global growth is on track for 2.7% this year, which is a full percent above the 1.7% consensus at the start of the year. Growth in the US has been particularly strong this year relative to consensus and is on track for 2.4%, well above the 0.4% consensus. The good news has also extended to inflation. Many countries have seen a marked slowdown in headline inflation and also made progress on the core (excluding food and energy) side as well.

While the incoming data has been positive, the worry is that recessions in the major economies have merely been delayed rather than averted. It is well known that higher interest rates impact the real economy with “long and variable lags”, which helps to explain why many recession forecasts for this year have been pushed out to next year. However, this has created a backdrop of uncertainty for financial markets in both bonds and equities.

The adjustment that we have seen in bond markets has been substantial, with price drawdowns in nominal terms (i.e. before factoring in inflation) worse than the painful 1970s. In real terms (i.e. having factored in inflation) the 1970s were more painful for bond investors, but it is still the case that real yields have jumped significantly in recent years. There is now more value in bond markets than there has been for many years.

The US labour market is being watched particularly closely, as material weakness here would be indicative of a recession. So far, there are some cracks appearing, but overall things are holding up. The high level of job openings means that laid off workers are likely to find new positions, but things are getting a bit harder. On the flip side, this softening helps with inflation pressure and reduces the likelihood of interest rates going higher.

There are also some further cracks out there. Germany is already in recession and global industrials have reported mixed third quarter earnings results as global manufacturing remains weak. Equity markets struggled in October as higher bond yields put pressure on valuations (price-earnings multiples fell) and earnings have been mixed. The path to a soft landing (where inflation falls back to 2% without a recession) still exists in the US but, unlike Samuel Beckett’s character Godot who never arrives, we cannot comfortably say that a recession will not happen in the next 12-months.

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Fixed Income

Term Premium Tantrum

  • US bonds continue to weaken led by rises in real yields
  • Weak growth in the Eurozone has stabilised European bond markets
  • China and Japan have eased monetary policy but for very different reasons

The US Treasury supply shock seen in the third quarter continued to reverberate in October despite heightened geo-political risk and falling energy prices. The extra compensation or ‘term premium’ required by investors in longer dated debt surged by over 100 basis points (bps). As a result, volatility and real bond yields rose dramatically, with the US 30-year reaching a high of 2.56% - the highest level since 2008. Furthermore, nominal yields broke through the symbolic 5% level.

Negative momentum in the US Treasury market was also compounded by better than expected US economic data. The advanced reading of third quarter GDP was up 4.9%, with core GDP (excluding volatile components) up 2.8%, led by remarkably resilient consumer spending. Whilst fixed income securities continue to be buffeted by this perfect storm, clouds are breaking across the horizon. Cheaper valuations, lagged effects of monetary policy and a peak in G7 base rates will lead to lower uncertainty and fixed income volatility stabilising term premiums and sentiment over the coming months.

In Europe, economic activity is slowing rapidly with Eurozone producer prices now in outright deflation. The region is still heavily exposed to energy price swings and, although natural gas inventories are currently ample, a winter recession would not necessary be a bad outcome from an inflation perspective. On a positive note, as this weaker growth in Germany spreads to the rest of the Eurozone and the UK, government bond yields have stabilised and the European Central Bank looks set to be the first major central bank to reduce interest rates in 2024.

The Chinese economy is flatlining but monetary policy is being eased in a gradual and measured way. In contrast, Japan is buoyant as an undervalued yen continues to stoke exports and import inflation. As a result, Japanese 10-year bond yields were permitted to rise to 0.94% as the Bank of Japan effectively ended yield curve control. Expanding the balance sheet to defend the 1% yield ceiling was self-defeating, as this led to further currency weakness and inflation.

Further signs of a global slowdown are also being seen in commodity markets. Despite a Middle East war premium, supply cuts and a stronger US dollar, oil prices slid 11% to $81 per barrel. This was passed on to US consumers almost immediately with regular gas prices on average falling to $3.46 per gallon – providing stimulus to the US economy as the holiday shopping season approaches.

Credit spreads widened in line with the weakness seen in equity markets. However, a 40bps increase in high yield bonds remains subdued and is not a catalyst for us to deploy capital into credit markets. Currency market volatility was exceptionally low given the movement in risk assets. The US dollar marginally rallied, but failed to benefit from the move higher in US real interest rates. The Canadian dollar weakened by 2.2% versus the US dollar as a recession is starting to look more likely in the highly levered economy. We took this opportunity to add cheap Canadian bond exposure to portfolios where appropriate.

We have added some risk to our US dollar bond funds, mainly via currency exposure and US mortgage backed securities, where we are now almost maximum overweight. Elevated fixed income volatility, slow prepayments and lack of demand from US banks and the Federal Reserve has led to distressed pricing in agency mortgage pools. However, rising unemployment and peak base rates in the G7 should reverse those dynamics in 2024 leading to high single digit total returns. In addition, we remain neutral duration in the US as we wait for signs of a broader economic slowdown. In Canada, Europe and the UK there are already sufficient signs of a slowdown and we are therefore more comfortable with duration (interest rate risk) in these regions.

Equities

A Mixed Earnings Season

  • The S&P500 Equal Weight index is now in negative territory
  • A mixed earnings season sees increased volatility
  • Buybacks are a key source of demand for US equities

While the S&P 500 is still up 10.7% after the recent sell-off, the equal weight S&P 500 is now in negative territory for the year. This highlights the narrow breadth of the rally and arguably points to an index return which is disconnected from the underlying fundamentals.

The returns of the equal weight S&P 500 help paint a clearer picture of underlying cyclical dynamics as S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth is anaemic this year. The aggregate earnings number is slightly skewed due to the energy sector, with strong returns last year and normalising returns this year. However underlying earnings growth this year is more in line with the return of the equal weight S&P 500 index return. Earnings growth is expected to be 9.6% next year and 10.6% in 2025, however given the higher-for-longer interest rate expectations and the recent spike in yields (equivalent to three interest rate hikes), we would expect these numbers to be cut as we approach the end of the year. Historically, analysts typically lower earnings estimates by 4% each year.

Heading into the third quarter earnings season, consensus was for 2% sales growth and flat EPS growth relative to last year. Excluding Energy, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 5%. So far 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported and the results have been more mixed than the previous two earnings seasons. A running theme has been companies beating earnings estimate for the current quarter but providing weaker than expected guidance for the following quarter. This indicates a more challenging operating environment. Clearly, there has been a change in sentiment with companies being punished for lower guidance and investors demanding more to remain invested in equities. The one-day price change is negative and lower than previous earnings seasons, even though the aggregate EPS beat is towards the higher end of the range.

We started the earnings season with the large capitalised banks reporting strong earnings and smaller regional banks reporting mixed results. Investors’ attention then shifted to the so-called Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla). While many came in ahead of estimates on sales and EPS, the one-day returns dispersion was high. Alphabet and Tesla were nearly down double digits, and Meta closed down 4%. Apple was roughly unchanged. Amazon and Microsoft closed up 6.8% and 3.1% respectively. As we said in previous publications, the correlation earlier in the year has been quite exceptional and that it is unlikely to continue given the different underlying businesses. These seven companies accounted for 12% of S&P 500 sales and 17% of EPS in 2022 and are expected to contribute to 15% of S&P 500 sales and 24% of EPS by 2025. This would further distort the returns of the S&P 500 index.

As bond yields have become more attractive, an important question is “who is buying equities?” We recently found out that Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of equities for the fourth quarter in a row. Demand for US equities in 2021 and 2022 has mainly been driven by households, however this changed in 2023 as households were already heavily invested in equities. This only left corporations, mainly through buybacks, as the main buyers of equities. However, higher yields are forcing corporations to reconsider the value of buying back shares versus retiring debt, meaning this source of demand could also dwindle, which would be another headwind for equities.