
By Nicholas Rilley, CFA, Investment Manager and Strategy Analyst
The US economy was on course to achieve a soft landing. A normalisation of supply and demand in the labour market, easing supply chain pressures after the pandemic, and a decline in commodity prices helped lower inflation to 2.4%. This all occurred without a recession. The final piece was for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates, which they did in September.
However, following the results of the US election, sustaining this favourable economic and policy mix will be very challenging.
Assessing the potential implications of a Donald Trump presidency is particularly difficult due to the wide variety of competing ideas, many of which are contradictory. Trump’s agenda includes lowering taxes, imposing tariffs on trade, cutting regulations, reducing immigration, and strengthening the military.
Some of Trump’s agenda is positive for US economic growth but is also inflationary. Some aspects of the agenda, are disinflationary (such as deregulation), while others would be detrimental to growth (such as immigration restrictions). The potential for large tariffs presents a significant downside risk for both US and global growth. Many promises were made on the campaign trail, and it remains uncertain which policies will be enacted and on what timeline.
With the continuation of a soft landing now unlikely, there are two potential paths.
One is that market concerns about higher-for-longer budget deficits, combined with elevated inflationary pressures (inflation excluding volatile food and energy is at 3.3%), could lead to bond yields rising even higher than they have recently. If this happens, together with significant trade tariffs imposed early in the presidency, it could tip the global economy into recession. Equities would come under pressure and negative feedback loops could take hold in the US labour market.
The more likely path is that we see a pickup in US activity driven by tax cuts, deregulation, and a rise in animal spirits. Keynes wrote about the power of animal spirits—psychological factors that drive investment and spending decisions beyond fundamental economic conditions. Sentiment has struggled to recover in recent years, largely due to the psychological impact of inflation and higher interest rates. If a pickup in confidence can take hold without a large rise in bond yields and before trade tariffs are introduced, then the election could be the catalyst for a cyclical upswing.
This is where the inherent contradictions in the policy platform become apparent and suggest an underlying battle of ideas within the incoming administration. The pro-business element is represented by figures like Elon Musk. A push to cut taxes, deregulate industries such as technology, finance, energy, and autos, and limit antitrust oversight is a powerful combination for short-term growth. In this scenario, tariff threats would be used a means to extract concessions from trading partners.
On the other hand, actually imposing trade tariffs, reducing immigration, and forcing companies to move production to more expensive jurisdictions represent policies that are less business-friendly. If tariffs are used to erect a protectionist barrier around US industry, they will act as a tax on businesses and consumers. Furthermore, industries such as food production and construction are particularly vulnerable to shifts in immigration policies.
When thinking about Keynesian animal spirits and a potential pickup in confidence, it is important to distinguish between real economic growth and financial engineering that boosts asset prices but not real growth. After a subdued couple of years for mergers and acquisitions, it is likely that we will see a new cycle of dealmaking. This was already underway, aided by lower interest rates, and helps improve the functioning of capital markets.
However, what really drives long-run growth is investment, and whether companies will actually increase their investment is a more challenging question. Evidence from the tax cuts in Trump’s first term suggests they did little to boost real growth. An exception to this is likely to be the technology sector, but this issue is much larger than just politics. The buildout of Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure has driven a significant increase in investment across semiconductors, data centres and energy.
A lack of economic growth helped propel Trump to the presidency in 2016, but this time around, inflation is the more salient issue for voters. The macroeconomic backdrop is therefore fundamentally different from his first term. Trump has promised to “end inflation and make America affordable again,” which gives us some clues about his potential priorities. Financial markets also serve as important guardrails: equity markets for tariffs and bond markets for fiscal policy.
Using tariffs to fund tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals is a highly regressive combination that would be detrimental to growth. Extending existing tax cuts is highly likely, but so is prioritising disinflationary policies, such as deregulation.
US growth has supported the Rest of the World through imports in recent years, but going forward, there is a risk US growth could come at the expense of the Rest of the World.
Igniting animal spirits on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley is much easier than igniting animal spirits in the real economy. Fighting a pickup in animal spirits in financial markets can be a painful endeavour, but whether the momentum can be maintained will depend on who wins the battle of ideas. The nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a popular Wall Street figure, suggests the pro-growth path is more likely. Deregulation typically supports short-term growth but can increase long-term risks. This is important to remember, because booms have a tendency to be followed by busts.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the opinions of the writer and whilst believed reliable may differ from the views of Butterfield Bank (Cayman) Limited. The Bank accepts no liability for errors or actions taken on the basis of this information.